Accurate football predictions

Match predictions and best odds across bookmakers

Premium tips

Today

118

23

Yesterday

12

59%

Week stats

Featured Events

Inplay update status

FK Orenburg - Anzhi Makhachkala

Bookie Edge:

6.91%

Actual Risk:

4.28%

Expected ROI:

97%
Enter your money
Sell Risk: 691
RedOdds Tip: Home Team
Sell Odds: 1.62

Info

  • How to use Premium Tip?

    Premium Tip is a function showing when money is not in line with mathematics regarding a predefined outcome.

    More info

      If probability on an outcome is showing 30% but the odds on that specific outcome with a Bookie is showing 2.00 (implying 50% probability of that specific outcome happening) then it generally means that smart money is moving into that outcome in a way not being aligned with what the mathematics are implying.

      It has shown that Premium Tip boxes over time has correct predictions of approximately 65%. Equilibrium for that probability is 1.54 in odds meaning that as long as you take positions in a specific Premium Tip outcome with odds greater then 1.54 you will be a winner over time if using the same amount of money invested, over and over again.

      A general mathematical rule is not to spend more than 2% of your money on each specific outcome.

  • Football Arbitrage with 3 outcomes

    Let's say we have an upcoming football match between Real Madrid and Real Sociedad.

    More info

      Real Madrid win, at odds of 2.00
      Drawn, at odds of 4.50
      Real Sociedad win, at odds of 6.10

      We calculate the implied probability for each individual outcome to identify if there is an arbitrage opportunity.

      Real Madrid at odds of 2.00
      Implied probability = 1 / 2.00
      = 0.50= 50.00%

      Drawn match at odds of 4.50
      Implied probability = 1 / 4.50
      = 0.2222 = 22.22%

      Real Sociedad win at odds of 6.10
      Implied probability = 1 / 6.10
      = 0.1639 = 16.39%

      We summarize each probability to come up with our market total.

      = 50.00% + 22.22% + 16.39% = 88.62%

      The total market is below 100%, we have identified an opportunity to make a guaranteed profit. Now we have to work out how much to stake on each outcome for a guaranteed profit no matter the outcome. Let's say we want to bet €500.

      Real Madrid at odds of 2.00
      = 50.00% / 88.62%
      = 56.42%

      The stake on Real Madrid will then be 56.42% of €500, a total of €282.12 on Real Madrid to win.

      Drawn match at odds of 4.50
      = 22.22% / 88.62%
      = 25.08%

      The stake on Draw will then be 25.08% of €500, a total of €125.39 on Draw.

      Real Sociedad at odds of 6.10
      = 16.39% / 88.32%
      = 18.50%

      The stake on Real Sociedad will then be 18.50% of €500, a total of €92.50 on Real Sociedad to win.

      If we place all bets, we will be guaranteed a profit on the match of roughly €64 no matter what happens.

Premium tips weekly overview

23.10.2020

Premium tips

12

Correct

59%

22.10.2020

Premium tips

24

Correct

50%

21.10.2020

Premium tips

47

Correct

64%

20.10.2020

Premium tips

30

Correct

60%

19.10.2020

Premium tips

16

Correct

57%

18.10.2020

Premium tips

68

Correct

68%

17.10.2020

Premium tips

110

Correct

62%

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